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Updated Indices dividends for the period commencing 11th April 2025

Instruments 2025-04-11 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 2025-04-21 DJ30 (USD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.163 SPI200 (AUD) 0 0 0.367 0 0 0 0 HK50 (HKD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nikkei225 (JPN) 0 0 0 …

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Daily Global Market Update – 10th April, 2025

Daily Global Market Update – 10th April, 2025

Trade War Reshuffles. Markets shift fast! - Market Update: April 10, 2025

Global markets are adjusting to a volatile landscape as U.S.-China trade tensions escalate, despite a 90-day tariff delay on most nations announced by President Donald Trump. Cooling U.S. inflation data looms large, with the March CPI report set to influence Fed rate expectations and the USD’s trajectory. Safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese Yen rally, while the Canadian Dollar weakens amid oil’s struggles and Fed rate cut bets reshape currency dynamics.

U.S. CPI Inflation Data in Focus

Forecast: The U.S. CPI is expected to rise 2.6% YoY in March (down from 2.8%), with core CPI easing to 3% (from 3.1%), per the Bureau of Labor Statistics report due at 12:30 GMT today. Monthly gains are projected at 0.1% for headline CPI and 0.3% for core.

  • Key Drivers: TD Securities anticipates a “firm” 0.26% m/m core inflation pace, with goods cooling and services picking up. A sharp drop in energy prices (-0.07% m/m headline) and flat food inflation signal a slowdown, keeping Fed rate cuts on the table.
  • Market Impact: A softer-than-expected report could boost Fed easing bets (currently 100 bps by year-end), weakening the USD further.
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EUR/JPY: Yen Pressures Euro

    • Current Levels: EUR/JPY softens to 161.05 in early European trading, down 0.3%.
    • Key Drivers: Stronger-than-expected Japanese PPI (+2.9% YoY) reinforces BoJ rate hike expectations for 2025, lifting the JPY. Safe-haven demand persists amid U.S.-China tariff escalation, though a neutral RSI (near 50) suggests consolidation. The euro weakens as ECB rate cuts loom (90% chance of 25 bps on April 17).
    • Technical Outlook: Vulnerable below the 100-day EMA (161.00); support at 160.35, resistance at 162.20. A break below 160.00 could target 159.12.

Japanese Yen vs. USD: Safe-Haven Strength

        • Current Levels: USD/JPY slides to mid-146.00s, down 0.4%, after a bounce from sub-144.00.
        • Key Drivers: Robust Japanese PPI and hopes of a U.S.-Japan trade deal bolster the JPY, amplified by its safe-haven status amid tariff fears. Divergent BoJ (hawkish) and Fed (dovish) outlooks weigh on USD/JPY, though recovering risk sentiment caps JPY gains.
        • Technical Outlook: Support at 145.50; resistance at 147.00. CPI data could dictate the next move.

USD/CAD: Loonie Under Pressure

          • Current Levels: USD/CAD dips to 1.4075-1.4070, down 0.2%, after failing to hold above 1.4100.
          • Key Drivers: Fed rate cut bets and a risk-on recovery (sparked by Trump’s tariff delay) weaken the USD. However, oil’s inability to rebound from a four-year low ($61) undermines the Canadian Dollar (CAD), limiting USD/CAD losses. Bearish oscillators signal further downside.
          • Technical Outlook: A break below 1.4055 could test the 200-day SMA (1.4000); resistance at 1.4175-1.4180.

Gold: Eyes Record Highs

        • Current Levels: XAU/USD rallies to $3,100, up 1.3%, closing in on its all-time peak.
        • Key Drivers: Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions (despite tariff delays elsewhere) drive safe-haven flows. Fed rate cut expectations depress the USD, while inflation fears enhance gold’s appeal as a hedge. Elevated U.S. yields (10-year at 3.90%) and risk-on sentiment pose headwinds.
        • Technical Outlook: Resistance at $3,120 (record high); support at $3,070. CPI data will be pivotal.

Broader Market Context

      • Mixed Signals: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) eased to 28 as Trump’s tariff delay lifts risk assets—S&P 500 futures rose 0.8%. Yet, U.S.-China tensions keep safe-havens in demand.
      • Currency Trends: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slips 0.2% to 103.90, reflecting Fed easing bets. The JPY and gold outperform, while CAD lags.
      • Commodities: WTI crude holds near $61.50, up 0.8%, but oversupply and demand fears linger.

      Looking Ahead:

      • Key Events: Today’s U.S. CPI data could shift Fed expectations—cooler inflation may lock in a May cut, pressuring the USD further. Japan’s BoJ stance and U.S.-Japan trade talks remain wildcards.
      • Market Implications: A softer CPI could fuel risk-on momentum, lifting equities and weakening safe-havens, while a hotter-than-expected print might bolster the USD and cap gold’s rally. Volatility is primed to swing.

      Key Takeaway:
      Trump’s tariff chess game reshuffles global markets—delaying some moves but doubling down on China. Cooling U.S. inflation keeps the Fed in play, driving gold past $3,100 and the yen higher, while oil and CAD struggle. Today’s CPI report holds the next decisive piece in this high-stakes economic match.

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Daily Global Market Update – 9th April, 2025

Daily Global Market Update – 9th April, 2025

Global Plays Shift - Market Update: April 9, 2025

Financial markets are navigating a high-stakes chessboard as U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, effective today, intensify global trade tensions and stoke recession fears. The Japanese Yen and gold shine as safe-haven assets, bolstered by risk-off sentiment and policy divergences, while the euro and Australian Dollar face mixed pressures. Investors are on edge awaiting key data, including FOMC minutes and U.S. inflation figures, as central banks and governments adjust their strategies in this escalating economic standoff.

EUR/JPY: Yen Gains as Tariff Tensions Mount

      • Current Levels: EUR/JPY trades near 160.50 in Wednesday’s Asian session, recovering daily losses with a 0.3% uptick.
      • Key Drivers: The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on safe-haven demand amid fears of a tariff-triggered global recession. A pivotal meeting today between Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF), Financial Services Agency (FSA), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) to discuss global markets adds focus, though expectations for concrete action are low. Optimism around Trump agreeing to trade talks with Japan further lifts the JPY, alongside BoJ’s hawkish 2025 rate hike outlook fueled by domestic inflation. The euro (EUR) weakens as markets price in ECB rate cuts in April and June.
      • Technical Outlook: Resistance at 161.00; support at 159.50. JPY strength could push EUR/JPY lower if risk-off persists.

Gold: Safe-Haven Rally Continues

      • Current Levels: XAU/USD climbs to $3,020, up 1% in Asian trading, nearing Tuesday’s swing high.
      • Key Drivers: Gold surges as Trump’s tariffs—ranging from 11% to 84% on 86 nations, with a 50% hike on China—ignite global trade war fears. Fed rate cut bets (multiple reductions expected by year-end) weaken the USD, boosting the non-yielding metal. Rising U.S. bond yields, possibly from China dumping Treasuries in retaliation, pose a headwind, but safe-haven flows dominate.
      • What’s Next: FOMC minutes today and U.S. CPI Thursday will shape Fed expectations and gold’s trajectory.
      • Technical Outlook: Resistance at $3,030; support at $2,990.

EUR/USD: Euro Edges Higher

        • Current Levels: EUR/USD rises to 1.1065 in early European trading, up 0.4% on USD softness.
        • Key Drivers: Trump’s tariffs, effective Wednesday, drag the USD lower amid recession concerns, lifting the euro. However, ECB’s dovish shift—90% odds of a 25 bps cut on April 17—caps EUR upside as tariffs threaten eurozone growth. Focus turns to FOMC minutes and Fed’s Thomas Barkin’s speech today.
        • Technical Outlook: A break above 1.1100 could target 1.1145 (YTD high); support at 1.1000.

Japanese Yen vs. USD: Safe-Haven Strength

      • Current Levels: USD/JPY slips to 145.00 after retesting a multi-month high near 144.50, down 0.5%.
      • Key Drivers: The JPY benefits from a global flight to safety as Trump’s tariffs hit. Hopes of a U.S.-Japan trade deal and BoJ’s hawkish stance contrast with dovish Fed expectations, pressuring USD/JPY lower. A modest risk-on recovery limits JPY gains.
      • Technical Outlook: Support at 144.50; resistance at 146.00. Divergent BoJ-Fed policies favor further JPY upside.

AUD/USD: Aussie Trims Gains

        • Current Levels: AUD/USD hovers near 0.6000, down 0.2% after a brief recovery.
        • Key Drivers: The Australian Dollar (AUD) falters as U.S. tariffs, including a 50% levy on China (up to 104% total), hit Australia’s China-linked economy. Trump’s willingness to negotiate offers some relief, but rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields (to 3.88%) bolster the USD. The RBA’s expected 100 bps of cuts starting in May (25-50 bps possible) adds pressure.
        • Technical Outlook: Support at 0.5950; resistance at 0.6050.

Broader Market Context

    • Risk-Off Dominance: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) holds above 31, reflecting tariff-driven uncertainty. Asian equities fell (Nikkei -1.9%, ASX 200 -0.8%), while U.S. futures point to a 1% lower open.
    • Safe Havens Shine: Gold’s rally to $3,020 and the JPY’s strength underscore a flight to safety. U.S. 10-year yields at 3.88% signal mixed pressures from tariff retaliation and Fed bets.
    • Currency Dynamics: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dips 0.3% to 104.10, weakened by Fed easing expectations (65% chance of a May cut). Commodity currencies like AUD face headwinds, while EUR balances ECB dovishness with USD weakness.

    Looking Ahead:

    • Key Events: FOMC minutes today could clarify the Fed’s rate-cut timeline, while Thursday’s U.S. CPI data will test inflation trends. Japan’s MOF-FSA-BoJ statement and Trump’s trade talks with Japan are also in focus.
    • Market Implications: Escalating tariffs and recession fears keep risk assets under pressure, with central bank responses—ECB cuts, BoJ hikes, RBA easing—shaping FX and commodity moves. Volatility remains elevated as global strategies pivot.

    Key Takeaway:
    Trump’s tariffs are rewriting the global economic playbook, driving safe-haven flows into gold and the yen while pressuring trade-sensitive currencies like the AUD. With central banks in reactive mode and key data looming, markets are locked in a high-stakes game of anticipation and adaptation.

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Daily Global Market Update – 8th April, 2025

Daily Global Market Update – 8th April, 2025

Market Update: April 8, 2025

Global markets are reeling as U.S. President Donald Trump escalates trade tensions, threatening a 50% tariff on China and rejecting calls to pause tariffs for negotiations. BlackRock’s Larry Fink warns of a weakening U.S. economy, amplifying recession fears. The EU softens some retaliatory tariffs but proposes others, while the ECB eyes rate cuts to counter risks. U.S.-Iran nuclear talks signal potential geopolitical relief, but trade war concerns dominate. Currency markets reflect the turmoil, with safe-haven flows and Fed rate cut bets shaping FX moves.

EUR/USD: Bulls Hold Ground

    • Current Levels: EUR/USD climbed to 1.0975 in Tuesday’s Asian session, snapping a two-day slide, up 0.3% on USD weakness.
    • Key Drivers: A softer USD, driven by Fed rate cut bets (100 bps by December), supports the pair. Technicals favor bulls above the 200-hour EMA (1.0900), with oscillators signaling upside potential.
    • Outlook: A break above 1.1000 could target 1.1050-1.1100; support at 1.0940, with a drop below 1.0900 risking 1.0800.
    • Context: ECB rate cut expectations temper euro gains.

Japanese Yen: Safe-Haven Bid Persists

    • Current Levels: USD/JPY dipped to 145, as the JPY retains a bullish bias.
    • Key Drivers: Safe-haven flows amid tariff-led recession fears and BoJ rate hike expectations for 2025 (despite tariff risks to Japan’s economy) bolster the JPY. A weaker USD, pressured by dovish Fed bets, caps USD/JPY upside.
    • Outlook: Support at 145.50; resistance at 151. Modest risk-on recovery may limit JPY gains.

AUD/USD: Rebounds on USD Weakness

      • Current Levels: AUD/USD rose to 0.605, up 0.4%, recovering from tariff-driven lows.
      • Key Drivers: USD selling and aggressive Fed rate cut bets (65% chance of a May cut) lift the Aussie, despite fears of a U.S. recession. The RBA’s likely 25 bps cut in May (with a 50 bps option) weighs on AUD’s longer-term outlook.
      • Outlook: Resistance at 0.6680; support at 0.5950.

WTI Crude Oil: Modest Recovery

    • Current Levels: WTI rose to $61.40, up 1.2%, after hitting a 2021 low.
    • Key Drivers: USD weakness aids USD-denominated oil, but tariff-driven recession fears and OPEC+’s 411,000 bpd output hike in May limit upside.
    • Outlook: Resistance at $62.50; support at $60.

Gold: Bounces to $3,000

      • Current Levels: XAU/USD hit $3,000, up 1.5% from Monday’s $2,956 low.
      • Key Drivers: Safe-haven demand surges as Trump’s tariffs spark trade war fears. Fed rate cut bets weaken the USD, supporting gold, though a slight risk-on recovery caps gains.
      • Outlook: Resistance at $3,020; support at $2,970. FOMC minutes and U.S. CPI data loom large.

Broader Market Context

  • Key Market Developments:

    1. Trump’s Tariff Threats Intensify:
      • The Wall Street Journal reports Trump is threatening an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports, escalating the trade war after China’s 34% retaliatory duties. The Financial Times notes Trump’s refusal to pause tariffs for trade talks, signaling no reprieve for markets.
      • Market Impact: Asian markets slumped—China’s CSI 300 fell 2.5%, Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.9%. U.S. futures signal a 1.2% lower open, with tech and consumer stocks most at risk.
    2. BlackRock’s Economic Warning:
      • BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told the Financial Times the U.S. economy is “weakening as we speak,” pointing to tariff-driven uncertainty and early recession signals in manufacturing and retail.
      • Market Impact: The S&P 500 futures slid 1.3%, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields dipped to 3.82% as investors sought safety in bonds.
    3. EU’s Mixed Tariff Response:
      • Per the Financial Times, the EU dropped bourbon, wine, and dairy from its U.S. tariff list to ease tensions, but Reuters reports it’s proposing tariffs on other U.S. goods while favoring negotiations.
      • Market Impact: Europe’s STOXX 600 edged up 0.2%, lifted by luxury and food sectors, though German exporters dragged the DAX down 0.8%.
    4. ECB Rate Cuts Loom:
      • The Financial Times highlights expectations for ECB rate cuts in April and June, targeting a deposit rate of 2% to counter tariff-related recession risks.
      • Market Impact: The euro weakened 0.4% to $1.0930, and European bond yields fell, with Germany’s 10-year Bund at 1.90%.
    5. U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks:
      • The Wall Street Journal reports Trump’s announcement of nuclear talks with Iran (mediated by Oman), raising hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.
      • Market Impact: WTI crude eased 0.5% to $61.20, reflecting reduced geopolitical risk premiums.

    Broader Market Sentiment:

    • Risk-Off Dominates: The VIX holds above 30, reflecting tariff-induced anxiety. Gold’s rebound to $3,000 underscores safe-haven demand, while U.S. Treasury yields hover at 3.82%.
    • Currency Trends: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.2% to 104.30, pressured by Fed easing expectations. Commodity currencies like AUD show cautious recovery.
    • Looking Ahead: FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and U.S. CPI (Thursday) will shape Fed rate cut bets, while tariff developments and U.S.-Iran talks remain critical. The ECB’s dovish tilt and RBA’s May meeting add to the mix.

    Key Takeaway:
    Trump’s tariff escalation and refusal to negotiate are driving markets into a risk-off spiral, with BlackRock’s recession warning amplifying fears. Safe-havens like gold and the yen shine, while the euro and Aussie find footing on USD weakness. With central banks poised to ease and trade wars heating up, volatility is here to stay.

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Daily Global Market Update – 7th April, 2025

Daily Global Market Update – 7th April, 2025

Market Update: April 7, 2025

Global markets are grappling with heightened volatility as the U.S.-China trade war escalates, driven by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures. Commodity currencies, oil, and equities are under pressure, while safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese Yen show mixed responses amid recession fears and geopolitical risks.

NZD/USD: Kiwi Weakens Amid Trade War Fallout

  • Current Levels: NZD/USD trades near 0.5565 in Monday’s early European session, down 0.15%, with selling pressure persisting around 0.5550-0.5565.
  • Key Drivers: China’s 34% tariffs on U.S. imports, retaliating against Trump’s 10% baseline tariff (and 54% on Chinese goods), are dragging down the China-proxy New Zealand Dollar (NZD). As New Zealand’s top trading partner, China’s economic woes threaten Kiwi exports.
  • RBNZ Outlook: A 25 bps rate cut to 3.50% is expected Wednesday, but with markets already pricing this in, the NZD’s reaction may be limited unless further easing is signaled.
  • Technical Outlook: A break below 0.5500 could target 2020 lows near 0.5460.

Japanese Yen: Safe-Haven Support Wavers

  • Current Levels: USD/JPY hovers near 150.50, with gains capped after filling a bullish gap.
  • Key Drivers: The Japanese Yen (JPY) benefits from risk-off flows but struggles as Trump’s tariffs dampen Japan’s export outlook, reducing Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike bets. Rising domestic inflation, however, keeps 2025 hikes in play. Lower U.S. yields from Fed easing bets also limit USD/JPY upside.
  • Market Sentiment: Equity sell-offs and geopolitical tensions bolster JPY, though intraday pullbacks persist.
  • Technical Outlook: Support at 149; resistance at 151.

USD/CAD: Loonie Slips as Oil Tanks

    • Current Levels: USD/CAD trades in the mid-1.4200s, up 0.25%, extending gains from the 1.4030 year-to-date low.
    • Key Drivers: WTI’s plunge to $60—a four-year low—alongside weak Canadian jobs data and political uncertainty, weakens the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The USD gains from risk-off flows.
    • Technical Outlook: Bulls eye a break above the 100-day SMA (1.4250); support at 1.4150.
    • Context: A potential 25% U.S. tariff on Canada looms large.

WTI Crude Oil: Hits Four-Year Low

  • Current Levels: WTI trades at $60.30, down sharply to its lowest since April 2021.
  • Key Drivers: Trump’s tariffs and China’s retaliation stoke recession fears, slashing demand forecasts. OPEC+’s surprise 411,000 bpd output hike in May (up from 135,000 bpd) adds pressure. JPMorgan predicts a U.S. and global recession this year.
  • What’s Next: U.S. CPI data Thursday could offer relief if inflation cools, weakening the USD.
  • Technical Outlook: Next support at $58; resistance at $62.50.

Gold Price (XAU/USD): Dips Below $3,000 but Holds Appeal

    • Current Levels: XAU/USD slides to $2,985 in Monday’s early Asian session, down from recent highs.
    • Key Drivers: Profit-taking and liquidation to cover U.S. stock market margin calls (triggered by Friday’s tariff-driven sell-off) pressure gold. However, escalating trade war risks and geopolitical tensions—like Russia’s shelling of Kherson, wounding seven—bolster its safe-haven status.
    • Analyst Views: “Bargain hunters will buy cheap gold next week.” “Gold remains a safe-haven for many.”
    • Technical Outlook: Support at $2,950; resistance at $3,020. Downside may be limited by risk-off demand.

Broader Market Context

  • Risk-Off Reigns: The VIX remains elevated as global equities slide amid trade war escalation.
  • Safe Havens: Gold holds near $3,000 despite selling, while U.S. Treasury yields stay low on Fed easing bets.
  • Looking Ahead: U.S. CPI, RBNZ’s rate decision, and further trade war developments will drive markets. Volatility is set to persist.

Key Takeaway:
Trump’s tariffs and China’s retaliation are roiling markets, slamming NZD, CAD, and oil while testing safe-havens like JPY and gold. With recession risks mounting and geopolitical tensions flaring, investors are navigating a high-stakes landscape of uncertainty.

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Daily Global Market Update – 4th April, 2025

Daily Global Market Update – 4th April, 2025

Market Update: April 4, 2025

As financial markets kick off April 4, 2025, investors are tuning in for a pivotal day of economic insights, with the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report looming large. Movements in gold, currencies, and crude oil are reflecting a blend of optimism, caution, and uncertainty, setting the stage for potential shifts depending on the labor market data. Here’s a snapshot of the key developments driving the markets today.

Gold Price Hovers Near $3,100 as Bullish Sentiment Persists Ahead of U.S. NFP Report

Gold continues to command attention, holding its ground above the $3,100 mark as bullish momentum shows no signs of fading. Investors are increasingly drawn to the precious metal as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties, with all eyes now on the forthcoming U.S. NFP report. A weaker-than-expected jobs number could amplify gold’s allure, while a robust outcome might test its recent upward trajectory.

Pound Sterling Holds Gains Against U.S. Dollar Amid U.S. Economic Shockwaves

The Pound Sterling is displaying notable staying power, clinging to modest gains against a U.S. Dollar that’s feeling the heat from emerging economic turbulence stateside. Market participants attribute the Dollar’s softness to mixed signals about U.S. growth, with the GBP/USD pair finding support as traders weigh the implications of potential policy shifts. The NFP data could either bolster Sterling’s edge or shift the balance back toward the greenback.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Job Growth Expected to Slow in March Amid Economic Uncertainty

The spotlight is firmly on the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, set to release later today, with analysts forecasting a noticeable slowdown in job creation for March. This anticipated easing comes against a backdrop of economic uncertainty, raising questions about the resilience of the U.S. recovery. Investors are bracing for a range of outcomes, from a mild dip that could calm inflation fears to a sharper decline that might signal deeper challenges ahead.

WTI Crude Oil Prices Turn Bearish at European Open as Market Sentiment Shifts

Crude oil markets are taking a breather, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices adopting a bearish posture as European trading gets underway. This downward tilt reflects a shift in sentiment, possibly driven by concerns over weakening demand or an oversupply outlook. Traders are keeping a close watch on global economic cues, with oil’s direction likely to remain sensitive to both the NFP results and broader geopolitical developments.

Broader Market Context

Today’s markets are a mixed bag, with gold shining brightly near $3,100 and the Pound Sterling eking out gains against a faltering U.S. Dollar. Meanwhile, crude oil’s bearish turn contrasts with the broader wait-and-see mood. The U.S. NFP report remains the day’s main event, poised to sway sentiment across asset classes as investors gauge the health of the U.S. economy and its global ripple effects.

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Weekly market wrap 31 March – 4 April 2025

Daily Market Update: April 4, 2025 Overview:April 4, 2025, Wall Street experienced a tumultuous session, closing with significant losses as fears mounted over the economic fallout from President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs. The sweeping trade measures, including a baseline …

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Daily Global Market Update – 3rd April, 2025

Daily Global Market Update – 3rd April, 2025

Market Update: April 3, 2025

As we step into April 3, 2025, global financial markets are reacting to a mix of geopolitical developments and economic shifts. From precious metals hitting new highs to currency fluctuations driven by tariff announcements, today’s market landscape reflects a cautious, risk-off sentiment. Here’s a detailed look at the key movements shaping the day.

Gold Prices Soar to Record Highs

Gold continues its relentless climb, reaching fresh record highs near $3,167 per ounce, surpassing the key resistance level of $3,142. The precious metal’s rally is fueled by unabated buying amid a prevailing risk-off mood in global markets. Investors are flocking to gold as a safe-haven asset, with support holding firm above $3,073, and analysts eyeing a potential move toward $3,252 if momentum persists. The surge underscores heightened uncertainty, likely driven by recent trade policy developments and macroeconomic concerns.

Japanese Yen Strengthens Against USD

The Japanese yen has spiked to a multi-week high against the U.S. dollar, a move triggered by President Trump’s latest tariff announcements. These tariffs, aimed at reshaping global trade dynamics, have introduced volatility into currency markets. The yen’s appreciation reflects its status as a safe-haven currency amid growing trade war fears, putting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Traders are closely monitoring further policy signals, as the yen’s strength could signal broader shifts in risk appetite.

Silver Prices Retreat to Near $33.00

In contrast to gold’s bullish run, silver has pulled back, with the XAG/USD pair falling to around $33.00. After failing to sustain upward momentum, silver appears to be entering a phase of consolidation. Market observers note that further sideways movement cannot be ruled out, as traders weigh the metal’s industrial demand against its safe-haven appeal. The divergence between gold and silver highlights differing investor priorities in the current environment.

USD/INR Jumps on India-Specific Tariffs

The Indian rupee faced pressure as the USD/INR pair jumped following Trump’s imposition of a 26% tariff directed at India. The currency pair bounced off support between 85.36-85.38, climbing to test resistance at 85.70, with sights now set on the 86.00 level. This tariff escalation has rattled markets, raising concerns about India’s export-driven sectors and adding to the rupee’s volatility. The move underscores how targeted trade policies are rippling through emerging market currencies.

Broader Market Context

Global markets are navigating a complex landscape on April 3, 2025. Equities are under pressure as trade war fears resurface, with major indices reflecting a cautious stance among investors. The U.S. dollar is experiencing mixed performance—weakening against safe-haven currencies like the yen while gaining ground against emerging market currencies like the Indian rupee. Precious metals remain a focal point, with gold leading the charge as a hedge against uncertainty, though silver’s pullback suggests some profit-taking. Bond yields are steady but sensitive to tariff-related developments, while commodities are showing mixed responses to the shifting trade outlook. Overall, the market tone is one of heightened vigilance, with participants bracing for further policy announcements and economic data to guide the next moves.

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Daily Global Market Update – 2nd April, 2025

Daily Global Market Update – 2nd April, 2025

Market Update: April 2, 2025

Global financial markets are navigating a landscape of caution and anticipation as investors brace for US President Donald Trump’s impending announcement on reciprocal tariffs. The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs is driving divergent performances across asset classes, with safe-haven assets like silver gaining momentum while risk-sensitive commodities such as oil face downward pressure.

Yen weakness against the US Dollar

The Yen is exhibiting weakness against the US Dollar, trading with a negative bias. This trend may be fueled by investors gravitating toward the USD as a safe haven or by concerns over the potential impact of tariffs on Japan’s export-driven economy. From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is teetering in the 150.00 region.

NZD defies broader market caution

In contrast, the NZD is defying the broader market caution, advancing to a fresh weekly high around 0.5720-0.5728 against the USD. This resilience could be attributed to New Zealand’s strong economic fundamentals or its ties to commodity markets, which are experiencing mixed signals. The pair is nearing significant resistance at 0.5760; a decisive move above this level could pave the way for additional gains.

Safe haven silver

Silver rose to $33.85 on Wednesday, driven by safe-haven demand amid concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which could escalate the global trade war and slow the economy. Technical indicators, including support above the 100-day EMA and a 14-day RSI near 57.80, suggest a bullish trend with potential gains targeting $34.23 and the $34.60-$34.70 zone.

Oil edges up

WTI Oil edges up to around $70.95 in early Asian trading on Wednesday, lifted by supply concerns following Trump’s tariff threats against Russia and Iran. Geopolitical risks, including potential disruptions from tariffs on Russian oil and actions against Iran’s nuclear program, support prices. However, the upside is tempered by a 6.037 million barrel rise in US crude stockpiles last week and anticipation of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement.

Broader Market Context

As the market awaits the details of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, volatility is expected to remain elevated. Should the tariffs prove more aggressive than anticipated, safe-haven assets like silver and the USD could see further inflows, while riskier assets such as oil and commodity-linked currencies might face intensified selling pressure. On the other hand, if the tariffs are milder or include significant exemptions, risk appetite could rebound, potentially lifting oil prices and supporting currencies like the NZD.

In summary, today’s market dynamics underscore the pivotal role of the upcoming tariff announcement in shaping investor sentiment. Traders are advised to monitor key technical levels and remain agile in response to new developments.

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Daily Global Market Update – 1st April, 2025

Daily Global Market Update – 1st April, 2025

Market Update: April 1, 2025

Global financial markets are treading cautiously as investors brace for a pivotal week featuring significant events such as RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s speech and an impending US tariff showdown. Safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen are drawing attention, while cryptocurrencies, notably TRON, exhibit heightened volatility. Below is a comprehensive analysis of key asset classes based on the latest developments.

Gold Rallies as Safe-Haven Demand Surges

  • Current Trend: Gold is gaining traction, up approximately 1% today, pushing toward the $2,000 level. Investors are flocking to the precious metal as a hedge against escalating uncertainties.
  • Key Levels:
    • Support: $3000
  • Influencing Factors: Rising geopolitical tensions and trade concerns, particularly ahead of the US tariff showdown, are bolstering gold’s appeal. Additionally, expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve stance amid softer US economic data are weakening the dollar, further supporting gold prices.

AUD/USD Holds Steady Post-RBA Decision

  • Current Level: The Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading in a narrow range around 0.62515-0.63500 following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to maintain interest rates at 4.10%.
  • Key Event: Markets are laser-focused on Governor Michele Bullock’s upcoming speech, which could provide critical insights into the RBA’s future policy direction. A dovish tilt might weigh on the AUD, while hawkish remarks could offer support.
  • Technical Outlook:
    • Resistance: 0.6600
    • Support: 0.6500
      The pair’s direction hinges on risk sentiment and commodity price movements, given Australia’s economic ties to China.

Yen Gains Ground, Pressuring USD/JPY Lower

  • Current Movement: The Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening, driving USD/JPY down by 0.5% to just below 149.00.
  • Driving Forces:
    • Safe-Haven Flows: Heightened global uncertainties, including trade disputes, are boosting demand for the yen.
    • Policy Dynamics: Speculation of a hawkish shift from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), fueled by rising inflation and wage pressures, contrasts with a dovish US Federal Reserve, narrowing the interest rate differential.
  • Key Levels:
    • Support: 148.00
    • Resistance: 150.00
      A drop below 148.00 could accelerate yen gains.

TRON Soars on Tether’s $1 Billion Move

    • Current Performance: TRON (TRX) is outperforming the broader crypto market, surging 5% following Tether’s $1 billion transaction. The rally coincides with anticipation surrounding the US Congress stablecoin bill review scheduled for Wednesday.
    • Market Impact: The proposed legislation could bring regulatory clarity to stablecoins, potentially enhancing confidence in TRON and related assets.
    • Outlook: Expect continued volatility as traders react to both the bill’s developments and crypto market sentiment.

EUR/USD Stable Ahead of Tariff Talks

      • Current Level: The Euro (EUR) is consolidating at 1.0820, holding steady after recent declines.
      • Key Event: Investors are on edge as this week’s US tariff showdown looms, with potential new levies threatening US-Europe trade relations.
      • Technical Outlook:
        • Resistance: 1.093
        • Support: 1.075
          A move above 1.0850 could indicate euro strength, while a breach below 1.075 might signal further downside.

Broader Market Context

Markets are in a state of heightened vigilance as key events unfold. Gold and the Japanese yen are capitalizing on safe-haven demand, while the Australian dollar and euro remain in a holding pattern pending directional cues from the RBA speech and tariff negotiations. Meanwhile, TRON’s sharp rally underscores the crypto market’s sensitivity to regulatory and transactional catalysts. With volatility on the horizon, traders are poised for action as these developments play out.

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