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Global financial markets on April 24, 2025, are navigating a complex interplay of fading US-China trade deal optimism and persistent safe-haven demand, with gold holding above $3,300 and the Japanese Yen gaining traction. A modest US Dollar pullback, driven by Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, contrasts with a positive risk tone fueled by easing Fed independence fears. Today’s US economic data, including Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders, alongside global flash PMI releases, are poised to shape market sentiment as trade tensions and economic uncertainties linger.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $3,320, trimming intraday gains but holding above $3,300.
Market Dynamics: Fading optimism for a quick US-China trade deal, as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent denies unilateral tariff cuts, revives safe-haven demand. A modest USD downtick, with the DXY eroding recent gains, and Fed rate-cut bets (25 bps in June, three cuts by year-end) support gold. Positive risk sentiment, driven by Trump’s reaffirmed support for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, caps upside. The Fed’s Beige Book highlights tariff uncertainty and cooling labor markets, adding to economic concerns.
Technical Outlook: Support at $3,260 (overnight low); resistance at $3,367 (23.6% Fibonacci). RSI in positive territory suggests bullish potential, with US data (Jobless Claims, Durable Goods) key today.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades below 143.00, pressured by a stronger JPY.
Influencing Factors: Safe-haven JPY gains as US-China trade hopes fade, with Bessent’s cautious stance and Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato criticizing US tariffs at the G7. BoJ’s rate-hike expectations, supported by broadening inflation, contrast with Fed’s dovish outlook, bolstering JPY. Japan’s PMI shows manufacturing contraction (48.5) but services growth (52.2), limiting JPY upside. US-Japan trade talks (set for April 30) add optimism but fail to dent JPY demand.
Technical View: Support at 142.00; resistance at 143.55. RSI indicates room for JPY gains, but positive risk tone may attract dip-buyers.
Current Level: AUD/USD stabilizes around 0.6390, supported by USD weakness.
Key Drivers: Australia’s Judo Bank PMI (Composite at 51.4) signals sustained expansion, lifting AUD. US-China trade uncertainties weigh on China’s outlook, but Trump’s assurance that tariffs won’t hit 145% supports AUD as a China-proxy. USD pressure from Fed rate-cut bets and mixed US PMI data (S&P Global Composite PMI showing slower growth) aids AUD/USD. RBA’s cautious stance on rate moves adds restraint.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6439; support at 0.6350 (nine-day EMA). RSI above 50 maintains bullish bias, with global PMIs in focus.
Current Level: EUR/USD hovers near 1.1340, up from a one-week low near 1.1326.
Market Dynamics: A USD pullback and positive risk tone from easing Fed independence fears support EUR/USD. ECB’s dovish stance (2.25% rate) and concerns over US tariffs (3% to 13% on EU goods) pressure EUR, but Eurozone PMI data today could lift sentiment if robust. US economic worries and Fed rate-cut expectations limit USD gains.
Technical Outlook: Support at 1.1326 (nine-day EMA); resistance at 1.1573 (April 21 high). RSI above 50 and bullish bias suggest potential to retest the ascending channel, but a break below 1.1326 could target 1.0944.
Current Level: GBP/USD rises to around 1.3270, snapping a two-day decline.
Key Drivers: USD selling pressure and mitigated tariff concerns (Trump’s softer stance) lift GBP/USD. BoE’s potential May rate cut (post-2.4% UK CPI) and Trump’s 10% tariffs on UK goods weigh on GBP sentiment. Positive risk tone and USD weakness provide tailwinds, with US data releases today critical for direction.
Technical View: Resistance at 1.3424 (April 22 high); support at 1.3200. RSI near 63.10 signals bullish momentum, with PMI data a key catalyst.
On April 24, 2025, markets reflect a cautious optimism tempered by renewed US-China trade concerns, with gold and the Japanese Yen benefiting from safe-haven flows. AUD/USD and EUR/USD hold firm despite a USD pullback, while GBP/USD gains on positive risk sentiment. USD/JPY remains under pressure from JPY strength, and EUR/JPY weakens amid trade jitters. Today’s US Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and global flash PMI data will drive short-term volatility, with trade negotiations and Fed policy expectations shaping broader trends. Investors stay alert for tariff-related developments.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on April 23, 2025, are experiencing a shift toward risk-on sentiment as US President Donald Trump’s administration signals progress in US-China trade negotiations, easing tariff war fears. Trump’s reassurance that he will not seek to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has bolstered confidence, supporting a modest US Dollar recovery. However, safe-haven assets like gold remain resilient above $3,300, and the Japanese Yen holds firm amid trade deal hopes. Today’s global flash PMI data is in focus, with markets seeking clarity on economic health amid Fed rate-cut expectations and lingering trade uncertainties.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $3,320, down from its all-time high of $3,500 touched on Tuesday.
Market Dynamics: A positive risk tone, driven by optimism over a potential US-China trade deal and Trump’s decision to back off from firing Powell, reduces safe-haven demand. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on de-escalating tariffs and White House reports of trade proposals from 18 countries further support risk assets. However, Fed rate-cut bets (25 bps in June, three cuts by year-end) and a still-weak USD limit gold’s downside.
Technical Outlook: Support at $3,289 (38.2% Fibonacci level); resistance at $3,370. Overbought RSI warrants caution, but bullish momentum persists. Global flash PMIs today could influence risk sentiment and gold prices.
Current Level: AUD/USD hovers around 0.6390, recovering from recent losses.
Key Drivers: Australia’s Judo Bank PMI shows continued expansion (Composite PMI at 51.4), supporting AUD. China’s Q1 GDP growth of 5.4% and Trump’s optimism on trade talks (tariffs not rising to 145%) bolster AUD as a China-proxy currency. A USD recovery, fueled by Powell’s reaffirmed position and hawkish Fed comments from Adriana Kugler, caps gains. RBA’s uncertain rate outlook adds caution.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6439 (four-month high); support at 0.6350 (nine-day EMA). RSI above 50 signals bullish bias, but PMI data could sway direction.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 143.00, rebounding from a multi-month low below 140.00.
Influencing Factors: A risk-on impulse from US-China trade deal hopes and Trump’s support for Powell lifts USD demand, but JPY remains supported by safe-haven flows and BoJ rate-hike expectations. Japan’s mixed PMI data (Manufacturing PMI at 48.5, Services PMI at 52.2) reflects uneven growth, while US-Japan trade deal optimism limits JPY gains. Fed’s dovish outlook (three cuts in 2025) caps USD/JPY upside.
Technical View: Resistance at 143.20; support at 141.45. A break below 141.00 could target 139.55 (2024 low). RSI suggests room for recovery but bearish bias persists below 143.00.
Current Level: EUR/USD trades around 1.1380, down 0.35% after hitting a one-week low near 1.1300.
Market Dynamics: A recovering USD, bolstered by improved US sentiment, pressures EUR/USD. However, risk-on flows from US-China trade progress and ECB’s dovish stance (2.25% rate after April cut) limit losses. Eurozone PMI data today could signal economic health, with stronger readings potentially lifting EUR. US CPI easing to 2.4% YoY supports Fed rate-cut bets, capping USD gains.
Technical Outlook: Support at 1.1300 (23.6% Fibonacci); resistance at 1.1425. Bullish MACD and RSI easing from overbought favor bulls, but a break below 1.1300 could target 1.1250.
Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3300, down from a seven-month high of 1.3424.
Key Drivers: USD strength and BoE rate-cut speculation (25 bps in May) weigh on GBP. Trump’s 10% tariffs on UK goods and 25% on steel/cars add pressure, though US-China trade optimism supports risk assets. UK’s cautious economic outlook amid global trade tensions limits GBP upside.
Technical View: Support at 1.3270; resistance at 1.3400. RSI near 80 suggests overbought conditions, with PMI data key for direction.
On April 23, 2025, markets are buoyed by optimism over US-China trade negotiations and Trump’s support for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, driving a modest USD recovery and risk-on sentiment. Gold holds above $3,300 despite reduced safe-haven demand, while AUD/USD and EUR/USD remain resilient. USD/JPY recovers but faces JPY strength, and GBP/USD retreats amid BoE caution. Today’s global flash PMI data will be critical for gauging economic health, with trade developments and Fed rate-cut expectations shaping near-term trends. Investors remain vigilant as tariff policies evolve.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on April 22, 2025, are reeling from intensified concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence following US President Donald Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The US Dollar continues its slide, hitting multi-year lows, as trade war fears escalate with China’s firm stance against Trump’s tariffs. Safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese Yen surge, while the Australian Dollar gains on USD weakness. With key PMI data and Fed speeches looming, investors brace for volatility amid a backdrop of global recession risks.
Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6420, extending gains as the USD weakens.
Key Drivers: Trump’s criticism of Powell and threats to oust him raise doubts about Fed independence, battering the USD. China’s resistance to Trump’s tariffs (US at 125%, China at 84%) adds market uncertainty, but optimism for a trade deal within weeks supports risk sentiment. The AUD benefits as a proxy for China’s economy, though RBA’s dovish stance (two rate cuts expected by November) caps upside.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6408 (four-month high); support at 0.6292 (50-day EMA). RSI above 50 signals bullish momentum.
Current Level: USD/JPY drops below 140.00, a level not seen since September 2024.
Market Dynamics: Safe-haven demand surges amid trade war fears and recession concerns. BoJ rate-hike bets, fueled by March’s accelerated core CPI, contrast with Fed’s expected 25 bps cut in June, boosting JPY. Trump’s tariff uncertainties and Fed independence concerns further weaken USD.
Technical View: Support at 139.55 (2024 low); resistance at 141.60. Oversold RSI suggests potential consolidation
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) hovers around $3,490, slightly below its all-time high of $3,500.
Supporting Factors: Safe-haven flows intensify due to US-China trade tensions and Fed independence doubts. A weaker USD, with the DXY near a three-year low of 98.30, supports gold. Overbought RSI (above 70) prompts caution, but geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine conflict) and Fed rate-cut bets (three cuts in 2025) maintain bullish bias.
Technical Outlook: Support at $3,423; resistance at $3,500. A break below $3,400 could trigger technical selling.
Current Level: EUR/JPY weakens to near 161.65, down 0.33%, as JPY gains traction.
Influencing Factors: Safe-haven JPY benefits from Trump’s tariff policies and Fed criticism. BoJ’s hawkish signals, with Governor Kazuo Ueda eyeing rate hikes, contrast with ECB’s dovish 2.25% rate cut, pressuring EUR/JPY. Eurozone PMI data tomorrow could influence EUR strength.
Technical View: Support at 161.00; resistance at 162.50. RSI below 50 indicates bearish momentum.
Current Level: WTI crude oil trades around $62.80, up 0.30%, but below $63.00.
Key Influences: Easing Iran-US nuclear deal tensions reduce supply concerns, capping gains. Trade war fears dent demand expectations, but a weaker USD and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risks provide support. US crude stockpiles rose by 515,000 barrels last week, adding pressure.
Outlook: Resistance at $63.00; support at $62.00. PMI data tomorrow could sway demand outlook.
On April 22, 2025, markets are dominated by a collapsing US Dollar, driven by Trump’s attacks on Fed independence and escalating US-China trade tensions. The AUD/USD rises, while safe-haven JPY and gold surge, with gold nearing $3,500. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY face pressure from JPY strength, and WTI oil struggles amid mixed signals. Tomorrow’s Eurozone and US PMI data, alongside FOMC member speeches, could provide clarity on global economic health and Fed policy, with Trump’s tariff moves remaining a critical wildcard.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on April 21, 2025, are gripped by heightened volatility as the US Dollar plunges to its lowest level since April 2022, driven by escalating US-China trade tensions and doubts over Federal Reserve independence. Despite Easter Monday closures in major markets like the UK, France, and Germany, US stock and bond markets remain open, with bearish US stock futures signaling risk-off sentiment. Gold hits a fresh record high, and safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen gain traction, while the absence of high-tier data leaves trade war developments and Fed rhetoric as key drivers.
Current Level: The US Dollar Index (DXY) tumbles to 98.30, down 0.92%, its weakest since March 2022.
Key Drivers: Intensified US-China trade war, with US tariffs on Chinese goods rising to 125% and China retaliating with 84% duties, fuels recession fears. Reports of Chinese state-backed funds halting US private equity investments escalate tensions. Speculation about Trump pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell adds uncertainty, undermining USD confidence.
Outlook: Hawkish Fed comments from Powell and Mary Daly (cautioning against aggressive rate cuts) may cap further DXY losses. US stock futures down 0.8-0.9% signal broader risk aversion.
Current Level: GBP/USD trades around 1.3400, its highest since September 2024.
Market Dynamics: UK markets are closed for Easter Monday, but USD selling and lingering BoE rate-cut caution (post-2.7% CPI) drive gains. Trump’s tariff pressures and global recession concerns keep USD on the backfoot, supporting the Pound.
Technical View: Resistance at 1.3450; support at 1.3300. Overbought RSI (near 80) on shorter timeframes warrants caution for bulls.
Current Level: USD/JPY drops over 1% to near 140.70, close to a multi-month high for JPY.
Influencing Factors: Safe-haven demand surges amid trade war fears and global recession risks. Japan’s core inflation acceleration in March supports BoJ rate-hike expectations, contrasting with a dovish Fed (100 bps cuts priced in for 2025). Optimism over US-Japan trade talks adds JPY support.
Technical Outlook: Support at 140.00; resistance at 142.00. Overstretched daily oscillators suggest potential consolidation, but the trend favors JPY strength.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) surges toward $3,400, hitting a fresh all-time peak.
Supporting Factors: Safe-haven flows intensify due to US-China trade tensions and USD weakness. Recession fears and Fed rate-cut bets (first cut expected in July) undermine the USD, boosting non-yielding gold. Overbought conditions (RSI near 70) pose risks, but bullish momentum remains strong.
Technical View: Support at $3,300; resistance at $3,420. A break above $3,400 could target $3,500 if trade jitters persist.
Current Level: Silver (XAG/USD) touches $32.80, just below a two-week high of $33.00.
Technical Outlook: The pair sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March slump, with positive daily oscillators. A sustained move above $33.00 (78.6% Fibo) could target $33.50-$34.00. Support at $32.05; a break below $31.30 could signal bearish momentum.
Fundamental Drivers: Safe-haven demand and USD weakness support silver, though holiday-thinned trading may limit follow-through.
On April 21, 2025, the US Dollar’s sharp selloff dominates markets, driven by trade war escalation and Fed policy uncertainty, fueling gains in safe-haven assets like gold, silver, and the Japanese Yen. EUR/USD and GBP/USD ride USD weakness to multi-year highs, but holiday closures in Europe temper activity. With US markets open, focus shifts to US stock futures, Fed speak, and trade-related headlines for near-term direction. The absence of high-tier data keeps markets sensitive to sentiment shifts, with Trump’s tariff policies remaining a critical wildcard.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on April 18, 2025, are experiencing subdued activity due to the Good Friday holiday, with thin trading volumes amplifying reactions to US-China trade developments and Federal Reserve rhetoric. Optimism from US President Donald Trump’s comments on a potential US-China trade deal within weeks is tempered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warnings of stagflation risks, keeping the US Dollar under pressure. Stronger oil prices and safe-haven flows influence currency pairs, while gold sees profit-taking after a record high. Key US data and Fed speak today could sway sentiment further.
Markets on April 18, 2025, are navigating a complex mix of trade deal optimism and stagflation fears, with holiday-thinned trading amplifying potential volatility. AUD/USD and EUR/USD hold steady, supported by USD weakness and positive trade talk signals, while USD/CHF faces pressure from a strong CHF. Gold sees profit-taking but remains underpinned by safe-haven demand, and WTI oil rallies on supply concerns. Today’s US data (Jobless Claims, Building Permits) and Fed’s Mary Daly’s speech could drive short-term moves, with Trump’s tariff policies and trade negotiations remaining pivotal.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets on April 17, 2025, are marked by cautious trading as investors digest mixed economic signals and ongoing US-China trade tensions. A modest US Dollar recovery, underpinned by anticipation of key US data releases, contrasts with safe-haven demand for gold and renewed volatility in cryptocurrencies like XRP. The European Central Bank’s expected rate cut and New Zealand’s inflation data add further complexity, while tariff uncertainties continue to shape sentiment across asset classes.
Current Level: EUR/USD trades near 1.1376, holding above 1.1300 but within a familiar range.
Technical Outlook: The daily chart shows overbought conditions with technical indicators like RSI lacking directional strength. The pair remains well above a bullish 20 SMA at 1.0970, signaling buyer dominance. On the 4-hour chart, a neutral stance prevails as the pair rests on a flat 20 SMA, with Momentum slightly below 100. Support levels: 1.1310, 1.1285, 1.1240; resistance at 1.1375, 1.1425, 1.1470.
Fundamental Drivers: Markets are cautious ahead of the ECB’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut to 2.40% today, potentially signaling a pause into 2026. US-China trade war escalation (China’s 125% tariffs vs. US’s 145%) and US recession fears keep USD bulls defensive, supporting EUR/USD. US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index data yesterday showed mixed results, adding to USD volatility.
Current Level: NZD/USD drops to the 0.5900 neighborhood, retreating from mid-0.5900s year-to-date highs.
Technical Outlook: The pair failed to break the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the September 2024-April 2025 decline. A recent breakout above the 200-day SMA (first since October 2024) and positive daily oscillators suggest dip-buying opportunities. Support at 0.5850; resistance at 0.5950.
Fundamental Drivers: New Zealand’s CPI remained within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target, failing to shift easing expectations, undermining NZD. A modest USD uptick and mixed China data (5.4% Q1 GDP, strong Retail Sales, and Industrial Production) limit NZD/USD downside. Australia’s jobs data (4.1% unemployment, 17.2K part-time jobs added) supports regional sentiment.
Current Level: GBP/USD retreats to around 1.3230, below 1.3250, after hitting a six-month high of 1.3292.
Technical Outlook: The 4-hour RSI near 80 indicates overbought conditions yet to correct. Resistance lies at 1.3300, 1.3320, and 1.3380 (ascending channel upper limit); supports at 1.3270, 1.3200, and 1.3175 (20-period SMA). The bullish trend remains intact within an ascending channel.
Fundamental Drivers: UK CPI data yesterday showed headline inflation cooling to 2.7% YoY, aligning with expectations and increasing BoE rate-cut bets for May (25 bps to 4.25%). A weaker USD, driven by Fed rate-cut expectations (90 bps in 2025), supports GBP/USD, though today’s US data (Building Permits, Housing Starts) could influence momentum.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades below its all-time high of $3,357.54, around $3,323.41, in a bullish consolidation phase.
Technical Outlook: Overbought conditions and a positive risk tone cap gains. Support at $3,200 holds, with resistance at $3,357 and potential for $3,720.38 by year-end per optimistic forecasts. An Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern signals strong upside momentum.
Fundamental Drivers: US-China trade war fears and recession concerns bolster safe-haven demand, despite a modest USD bounce. Fed rate-cut bets (three cuts in 2025) limit USD strength, supporting gold. A positive risk tone from Trump’s tariff exemptions on tech and auto sectors tempers gains. US data and Fed speak today are key.
Current Level: XRP stabilizes above $2.00, with potential for a 27% jump to $2.78.
Market Dynamics: A 60-day pause in the SEC-Ripple appeal case, with a status report due by June 15, signals progress toward a $50 million settlement, boosting sentiment. An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern supports a bullish breakout. Bitcoin’s stability above $84,000 adds to positive crypto momentum.
Outlook: XRP’s trajectory hinges on settlement news and broader market risk appetite.
On April 17, 2025, markets reflect a cautious optimism tempered by trade war uncertainties and central bank policy shifts. EUR/USD and GBP/USD hold bullish trends despite USD recovery attempts, while NZD/USD faces pressure post-CPI. Gold consolidates near record highs, supported by safe-haven flows, and XRP signals breakout potential amid legal clarity. Today’s US data releases (Building Permits, Housing Starts) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will likely drive short-term volatility, with tariff developments remaining a key focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets are navigating a complex landscape on April 15, 2025, as US President Donald Trump’s tariff exemptions on tech and auto sectors spark a cautious risk-on sentiment, while escalating US-China trade tensions—marked by China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs against the US’s 145% duties—fuel recession fears. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming US PPI data, UK jobs figures, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow for directional cues, with safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese Yen holding firm amid uncertainty. The Pound and Australian Dollar are capitalizing on a weaker US Dollar, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while oil prices grapple with mixed demand signals.
On April 16, 2025, markets reflect a tug-of-war between trade-driven uncertainty and pockets of economic resilience. The USD’s slide fuels gains for the CHF, JPY, and AUD, while GBP/USD awaits UK CPI for clarity on BoE policy. US Retail Sales data today and Powell’s speech tomorrow are critical for gauging Fed intentions and USD trajectory. With Trump’s tariff plans looming, safe-haven assets remain in favor, but China’s strong data offers a counterbalance for commodity currencies. Volatility is likely as these catalysts unfold.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Global financial markets are navigating a complex landscape on April 15, 2025, as US President Donald Trump’s tariff exemptions on tech and auto sectors spark a cautious risk-on sentiment, while escalating US-China trade tensions—marked by China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs against the US’s 145% duties—fuel recession fears. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming US PPI data, UK jobs figures, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech tomorrow for directional cues, with safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese Yen holding firm amid uncertainty. The Pound and Australian Dollar are capitalizing on a weaker US Dollar, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while oil prices grapple with mixed demand signals.
Markets are balancing optimism from US tariff exemptions against fears of a deepening US-China trade war. GBP/USD and AUD/USD thrive on USD weakness, while gold and the Yen draw safe-haven interest. EUR/USD remains range-bound, awaiting ECB cues, and WTI oil navigates conflicting signals. Today’s US PPI and UK jobs data, alongside Powell’s speech tomorrow, could shape near-term trends. Investors stay vigilant as trade policy uncertainty dominates.
Stay tuned for further updates as these dynamics evolve.
Global markets are gripped by volatility as the US-China trade war intensifies, with China raising tariffs on US imports to 125% in retaliation for steep US levies. Softer US inflation data and recession fears are hammering the US Dollar, boosting safe-haven gold and major currencies like the euro and pound. Cryptocurrencies show mixed signals, with Bitcoin eyeing a breakout, while Mantra’s dramatic crash rattles the market. Investors are focused on US PPI data, consumer sentiment, and trade developments for fresh direction.
Looking Ahead:
Key Takeaway:
The US-China trade war, now with 125% Chinese tariffs on US goods, is reshaping markets, hammering the USD and lifting safe-havens like gold and major currencies. Bitcoin teeters on a breakout, but crypto volatility persists with Mantra’s collapse. As US data looms, trade tensions hold the reins, keeping volatility front and center.
Financial markets are reacting to escalating US-China trade tensions, with gold and silver performing well as safe-haven assets. The US Dollar appears to be under pressure, reflected in the Dollar Index at around 100.40, following softer-than-expected US inflation data that has increased speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts. This weakening USD is supporting currency pairs like NZD/USD, which is holding steady above 0.5750, while USD/CAD shows a bearish outlook below 1.4000. The Australian Dollar is facing headwinds from trade war impacts, despite potential relief from restarting EU trade talks.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, continues its decline for the second consecutive session, hovering around 100.40 during Friday’s Asian trading hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a sustained bearish trend, with the index testing the lower boundary of a prevailing descending channel. Despite the downward pressure, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 30, signaling the potential for an imminent upward correction. Furthermore, the DXY is trading well below its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating weak short-term momentum.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological level of 100.00, followed by 99.76—the lowest level since April 2022—with additional support near the 99.00 mark. To the upside, a move toward the nine-day EMA at 102.34 could be on the cards. A decisive break above this level may enhance short-term bullish momentum and pave the way for a test of the key resistance zone near the upper boundary of the descending channel at the monthly high of 104.37, followed by 104.59.
The Australian Dollar is losing ground, likely pressured by the US increasing tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, raising concerns for Australia given its strong trade ties with China. However, there is some positive news, with reports that Australia is set to restart trade negotiations with the European Union, potentially offering support. Specific levels are not provided, but the AUD remains vulnerable amid elevated market volatility, likely trading lower.
The pair is holding positive ground around 0.5770, after reaching a daily high of 0.5800 during Asian trading hours. This resilience is bolstered by broad USD weakness amid trade war worries, with the Trump administration hitting China with new tariffs of 145%. Despite a 90-day pause on tariffs for other countries except China, the NZD benefits from the USD’s decline. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its April meeting, with analysts anticipating a deeper 50 bps cut and markets factoring in up to 100 bps in further easing by 2025, which might cap the NZD’s upside in the near term.
The intensification of the US-China trade war is fostering a risk-off environment, benefiting safe-haven assets like gold and silver. China has raised tariffs on 84% of American imports and added six US firms, including defense and aerospace companies like Shield AI and Sierra Nevada, to its trade blacklist, while introducing export controls on others such as American Photonics and BRINC Drones. This escalation is heightening global economic uncertainty, with potential implications for growth and financial stability.
US economic data continues to play a pivotal role, with the softer CPI suggesting cooling inflation, potentially paving the way for Fed rate cuts. However, tariff-induced inflation risks remain, adding complexity to the outlook. Central bank actions are also influencing markets, with the Fed under scrutiny for possible rate cuts and the RBNZ already easing, while other central banks’ responses will depend on their domestic conditions.
Investors are bracing for the release of the US March Producer Price Index (PPI) and the advanced Michigan Consumer Sentiment later today. The PPI data is expected to provide further insights into producer inflation, potentially influencing Fed policy expectations, while consumer sentiment will gauge confidence amid economic uncertainties. Additionally, any updates on US-China trade negotiations or retaliatory measures could significantly impact market dynamics, keeping volatility elevated.
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